PJM is the organization that runs the electric grid and the wholesale power market across 13 Mid-Atlantic and Midwest states and the District of Columbia. Utility Dive On September 29, 2026, twelve utilities presented requests asking PJM to add new demand, mostly from AI data centers, to its load forecast. A load forecast is PJM’s estimate of how much power customers will use in future years. PJM buys power plant capacity and plans new transmission lines against that estimate, so a project left out of it is a project nobody is building the grid to serve. PJM Inside Lines
What PJM is reviewing this fall
The rules for this review sit in Attachment B of PJM’s Manual 19, in the version that took effect on June 30, 2026. A utility can ask for an adjustment when it expects a load shift of 50 megawatts or more. A megawatt measures how much power a site draws at one moment. Utilities were asked to tell PJM by August 1 that they planned to file, and the full requests went in during September. PJM Manual 19
The stakes show in last year’s numbers. For 2030, utilities asked PJM to add roughly 60 gigawatts of demand across its whole region. PJM accepted 34 gigawatts. Modo Energy
What makes a project count as firm?
Only firm demand can count toward the years covered by a capacity auction. A capacity auction is how PJM pays power plants years ahead to be available when needed. The manual calls a project firm when it has two things. The first is a binding promise from the customer to take and pay for the power, or a utility commitment to build the lines with the customer paying toward them. A long term supply deal also counts. The second is real money behind it, such as collateral or an investment in the needed infrastructure.
Everything else is non firm. PJM may still count non firm demand, but only for later years that no auction has covered yet. PJM can also lower even firm numbers if supply chains or industry trends would slow the build. A signed letter with no money behind it will not move a near term forecast.
What a utility has to hand over
The manual asks for detail on each project. That means the owner, the location, the status of site control and permits, and the kind of data center. It also covers when the load starts, how fast it grows, whether it sits next to a power plant, and the customer’s financial terms. Customer secrecy agreements must allow the utility to share all of it with PJM. Missing data makes the request incomplete, and PJM may reject it or cut it down.
Utilities must also ask each customer whether the same project has asked to connect somewhere else, inside or outside PJM. A customer that does not answer is treated as a duplicate. If a utility flags a duplicate but cannot give the number of sites and megawatts, PJM removes that request from consideration. PJM Manual 19
The 2021 version of the same attachment asked for far less. PJM Manual 19, 2021
| Issue | 2021 manual | Manual in force since June 30, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| State utility regulator | No role in the review | Must get a chance to review before September filing |
| Loads counted for auction years | No firm test | Only loads with binding contracts and money behind them |
| Duplicate requests | Not asked about | Unanswered questions count as duplicates |
| Customer secrecy agreements | Not addressed | Must allow sharing all relevant data with PJM |
| Outside review | Any available independent analysis | Outside forecast can pull the final number toward its baseline |
Who else checks the numbers
Before filing, each utility must give its state utility regulator a chance to review the request and comment. A regulator that stays silent is treated as waiving that chance. PJM will say publicly whether a review happened but will not reveal what the regulator said. PJM Manual 19
PJM has also hired Charles River Associates to study AI data center demand trends on its own. That firm presents its findings in October. PJM then compares the utilities’ firm and non firm totals with that outside forecast and its range of uncertainty. Where the utility total falls outside that range, the final figure becomes an average of the outside baseline and the regulator’s view. If the final figure lands above what a utility asked for, the utility may keep its own lower number.
PJM plans to show how it combined all of this in November. The 2027 long term load forecast is due in January. PJM Inside Lines
Tomorrow’s topic
The Michigan PSC approval of the DTE power contract for Google.